The production plans of the world’s major car manufacturers for zero-emission, electric or hydrogen vehicles will be very far from meeting the objective of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, warns an NGO.
InfluenceMap, a think tank specializing in the relationship between the economic and financial world and the climate crisis, cross-referenced data from the firm IHS Markit (S
While road transport accounts for nearly 20% of CO2 emissions, the IEA calculates that to meet this target, zero-emission passenger cars (ZEVs) would have to represent 57.5% of total sales in 2030 and 20% of the stock. total number of cars in 2030, then 86% in 2050. We are very far from this, even if, in his great candor, the European legislator thought of carrying out the total change with a rubber stamp at the bottom of a regulation.
In 2021 electric vehicles represented 5.9% of sales and hybrids, 2.4%, notes the study. However, according to the production forecasts (data from March 2022) analyzed by InfluenceMap, it is exactly the opposite of the objectives that will be achieved. 68% of vehicles produced in 2029 will still be thermal combustion, including hybrid vehicles, compared to 32% electric and 0.1% hydrogen.
Of 12 major global manufacturers studied (including none Chinese), only Tesla, which produces only electric vehicles, and Mercedes-Benz (56% of ZEV in 2029) are in line with these objectives.
Question: What will the consumer do?
They are followed by the other large German groups BMW (45%) and Volkswagen (43%), the Japanese manufacturers being at the back of the pack, Nissan (22%), Honda (18%, but the data used does not take into account account the latest announcements of the group in terms of ZEV, underlines the study), as well as Toyota (14%).
The other manufacturers studied are Stellantis (ex-PSA-Fiat-Chrysler, 40%), Ford (36%), Renault (31%), General Motors (28%) and Hyundai (27%). Without going into the details of the Chinese market, the study notes that electric vehicles are expected to increase from 12% of production in 2021 to 40% in 2029.
Regarding the different segments of the market, InfluenceMap notes that the continued craze for heavier and more energy-consuming SUVs, which are expected to grow from 39% of the global market in 2020 to 47% in 2029, risks “cancelling many of the emissions reductions linked to the increase in electric vehicles”. In other words, the consumer does not really follow the guideline enacted in Brussels and, rational and accountable for his investments, continues to place great trust in the solutions that have become classics of the SUV and the internal combustion engine. Even if, at the margin, the latter is accompanied by a light hybridization that is more stimulating on the fiscal level than on the protection of the planet.