Ten days before the launch of the first round of legislative elections, the forecasts are panicking. The latest estimates show the presidential majority, with the label of the Together coalition, hampered in its ambitions for an absolute majority by its rivals, including in particular the New People’s Ecological and Solidarity Union (Nupes), bringing together the main left parties. Produced by Elabe for BFMTV, L’Express and their partner SFR, a latest Opinion 2022 survey confirms this trend. Published on Wednesday June 1, the survey affirms, on the basis of 2,000 people polled, that La République en Marche and its allies would be neck and neck with the members of the alliance fomented by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of France rebellious.
Emmanuel Macron and his Walkers are only awarded 24.5% of the voting intentions. The Nupes create a thin distance by overhanging their opponents with 25%. Behind the two unions that dominate the podium, the National Rally clings with 22%. The party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella is widening the gap with the team of Republicans and the UDI (12.5%). Far behind these four most popular political forces, the Reconquest! by Éric Zemmour appears to be in difficulty, with only 4.5% of the voting intentions.
Without assurance of obtaining an absolute majority (289 deputies), Together should, despite everything, win the largest number of seats in the next session. The conclusions of Opinion 2022 give between 275 and 315 parliamentarians to the macronists, against 155 to 180 for the Nupes and between 35 and 65 for the National Rally. On the LR and UDI side, it would be a cold shower: 40 to 65 deputies predicted, i.e. a probable loss of 71 to 91 seats.