“The mass is not said”: experts and political scientists warn against hasty conclusions after the first round of legislative elections, far from predicting according to them the result which, next Sunday, will give the “the” of Emmanuel’s second five-year term Macron.
On the evening of the first round, the fresh recomposition of French political life into three blocks – center, far right, radical and ecological left? is already supplanted by a mano a mano between the troops of Emmanuel Macron (Together!) and the alliance of leftists and environmentalists led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
“There is an extremely tight balance of power between the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) and the presidential majority which, at this stage, does not allow the latter to be assured of having an absolute majority” in a week, observes Mathieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos France.
“Is, yes or no, the presidential majority able to obtain an absolute majority? What was acquired the day after the presidential election is less so this evening. But in the second round, the voting method will mechanically promote the coalition Together!”, Says Adélaïde Zulfikarpasic, director of BVA Opinion.
With his audacious proposal – “elect me Prime Minister” – and his feat of bringing together LFI, PCF, PS and environmentalists under the banner of Nupes, Jean-Luc Mélenchon has succeeded in establishing himself as the number one adversary of ‘Emmanuel Macron, he who had failed to qualify for the second round of the presidential election.
“The second round is not over,” wants to believe eco-feminist Sandrine Rousseau.
But is the good score of the Nupes synonymous with real electoral dynamics? “The Nupes score is more the result of the aggregate versus the choice of splitting up,” highlights Ms. Zulfikarpasic.
“The scores at the national level do not give the order of arrival in the 577 constituencies next Sunday”, warns political scientist Denys Pouillard, director of the observatory of political and parliamentary life.
“However, Nupes finds herself facing a breakwater: she will have no more reservations, she cannot count on withdrawals, transforming the test will be difficult. The union of the left is certainly historic, but after? ” he completes.
For its part, the outgoing majority is clearly behind compared to 2017 and the first round of the presidential election of its champion, Emmanuel Macron.
“There is a slight decline linked to the return of right-wing voters to the fold,” analyzes Mr. Gallard. “It will be interesting to see what happens to those voters and Republicans who may be able to hold on to quite a few ridings.”
“The re-election of Emmanuel Macron was not a re-election of membership. We voted a lot for him against the far left or the far right. The French want to shake him up a little because they are not satisfied of his mandate”, notes Ms Zulfikarpasic.
Denys Pouillard judges, for his part, that “the work of the outgoing deputies has been judged and sometimes misjudged by an electorate disappointed by what they have been able to bring to the local level”.
On the side of the far-right bloc, “the results of the RN are mixed and (the party) has reason to be disappointed. Marine Le Pen no longer appears as the main opponent”, completes the director of BVA Opinion.
“The coming period is likely to be rather original”, predicts Emiliano Grossman, associate professor at Sciences Po: “It looks bad for the absolute majority. To govern, the executive will have to negotiate constantly. However, it is not at all in the DNA of the Fifth Republic and Macron. We will have to learn and take Parliament seriously”.
“The debates in the Assembly will lean towards the center right, with Edouard Philippe’s Horizons deputies who will have considerable weight. At the same time, we will have a very strong left opposition”, analyzes Ms. Zulfikarpasic.
What sparks and rekindles interest in participatory democracy, while abstention has reached a record level (between 52.1 and 53.2%)?
“If turnout is so low, it’s because there’s a sense that Parliament is useless,” said Grossman.
6/12/2022 23:31:14 – Paris (AFP) – © 2022 AFP
