The never-ending auction of 5G mobile radio frequencies in Germany from the perspective of a scientist a loser.

According to the analysis of the previous 270 rounds, it was clear that only one of the 41 blocks will fight, said the auction theorist Vitaly Grechko, the Deutsche Presse-Agentur in Mannheim. It was actually almost on target, but none of the four auction participants wanted to waive a Block. “The one who pulls back now, is the big loser.” The auction is only over when in the case of a company, the auction budget was exhausted, says the Economics Professor.

when might that be? It was hard to tell because the auction budget of the company were to be kept strictly secret. “It may be tonight, but may be also in a couple of months,” said Grechko, head of the Mannheim-based think tank, research group ZEW design. ZEW stands for “centre for European economic research”. Since mid-March, the Federal network Agency auctioned off in Mainz, Germany 41 mobile radio blocks, the winning bids add up to 5.61 billion euros – the expected 3 to 5 billion euros were exceeded significantly.

It’s about 12 blocks on the 2-Gigahertz Band on these blocks with greater range, there has long been no movement in the auction is de facto a Unity. Is contested, however, the 3.6-GHz Band, on the 29 blocks to be offered. After Gretschkos reading of the auction history, the Telekom wants to. nine blocks, Vodafone eight, Telefónica (O2) seven and Drillisch six In total, the plans of the corporations for 30 blocks – so a lot of.

The auction participants are currently in a Phase that is referred to in game theory as a “Wall of Attrition”, in German “battle of attrition”. “Everyone hopes in each round, that can and give up,” said Grechko.

The Dilemma: If a Überbotener decides in the next round, but against a new highest bid and thus the auction is about to end, he will be punished, in a sense, twice: He gets fewer blocks than planned, but shoulders still high costs – because the other blocks high swing in the competition to be very expensive. “He would have already pulled back before four weeks, he would have the same number of blocks as it is now, but would have been half as expensive”, says the Economics Professor. In this Situation, none of the participants would like to get – and therefore do more with the settlement offer, although it was clear that the price is already very high.

in 2015, there had been a similar Phase in that the mobile radio auction, then reduced at the end of the Telefónica and got a Block less than desired. After 178 laps, almost 5.1 billion euros came back in the state Treasury. It is advisable to have at such auctions own limited financial resources, always in the head, and as early as possible to get out, says the game theorists – so before the “battle of attrition”. As a result, the risk would be avoided to have a lot of to pay a lot of money. “But at the auctions the future of the company on the game, the pressure is high – get out in time, is very difficult.”